With the 2022 midterm elections rapidly approaching, it is important to understand what is at stake in this election cycle. Not only do the results of the upcoming election determine who controls Congress as well as state legislatures and governor’s offices, but the outcome will also influence the playing field for the 2024 presidential campaign. Specifically, all 435 seats of the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 of the seats in the 100-member Senate will be up for election.
If Republicans flip even one Democrat-held seat in the Senate, they will be able to form a majority and provide a roadblock to Joe Biden’s agenda. It will be important to pay particular attention to the closely contested Senate elections in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. For Democrats, abortion rights, Social Security, and Medicare are high on the agenda.
After the reversal of the landmark 1973 Supreme Court decision on Roe v. Wade, which granted women the right to an abortion, Democrats have petitioned for the codification of abortion rights. Democrats promise to uphold a woman’s right to have an abortion while Republicans have proposed a national ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade, there has been a significant increase in spending on ads related to abortion. According to AdImpact, a firm that tracks ads, Democrats spent more than $73 million on television ads about abortion in September nationwide. That represents about a third of all Democratic television ad spending.
Recently, Democrats have zeroed in on their claims that a Republican majority in the House would look to cut programs that millions of Americans rely on in a bid to reduce spending. This would mean, according to Democrats, that the fate of programs such as Medicare and Social Security would be at risk with a Republican midterm victory.
On Thursday, President Biden told supporters in Syracuse, NY, “[They would] put us in default unless we yield to their demands to cut Social Security and Medicare. They’re so determined to cut Social Security and Medicare, they’re willing to take down the economy over it.”
Political Strategists and Democratic officials agree that tying Republicans to attacks on Medicare and Social Security will send an important message to voters as the Midterm Election comes to a head. Social Security and Medicare programs benefit older voters who reliably cast ballots, even in off-year elections.
These programs are also overwhelmingly popular with the public, making proposed cuts or changes politically risky.
Another major issue in rallying the Democratic base is the threat to democracy. Last Friday, an assault on Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband renewed fears of political violence. The alleged attacker posted internet memes on Facebook and conspiracy theories about the 2020 election and Jan. 6, among other things. In close elections, Democrats believe heightened concerns about the state of democracy can pave the way for the last-minute attack on Republicans.
Zach Dougherty, a senior political science student, on the topic of Democratic campaigning, said “I think the Democrats stand a reasonable chance of retaining the Senate this midterm election…on the flip side, House Dems face an uphill battle to retain control. The numbers game is not looking bright for their majority…ensuring the integrity of the democratic processes as well the protection of our Republican institutions is the most vital issue for the Democratic Party going into the midterms.”
In New Jersey, the state’s 12 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are also all up for election, with Democrats currently controlling ten of those seats.
One of these seats lies in the 6th district which encompasses most of Middlesex County, as well as the Bayshore and oceanfront areas of Monmouth County. The 6th district is represented by Frank Pallone (D), who has served the district in Congress since 1993.
Throughout his career, Pallone sought to make healthcare more affordable and accessible and to protect and strengthen Medicare and Medicaid, an issue he is continuing to run on against his opponent, Susan Kiley (R). Another key issue Pallone hopes to secure his congressional seat is the protection of the environment. In 2020 Pallone announced the CLEAN Future Act, which aims for a 100 percent green and clean economy by 2050.
Nash Steward, a junior political science student, said, “it’s so weird that celebrities are running for office in PA. Senators should be selected for political ability rather than popularity.”
Another closely-watched election will be in New Jersey’s 7th district with incumbent Tom Malinowski (D) and Tom Kean Jr. (R). Malinowski, who was first elected in 2018, defeated Kean 50.6 percent – 49.4 percent in the 2020 election for the 7th District.
Malinowski maintains that during his time in Congress, he “[helped] pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill to fund the Gateway Tunnel, [brought] manufacturing and supply chains home to America, and [won] real progress on health care costs, gun safety, and the environment.” Malinowski has continued to make his accomplishments within the U.S Congress key focuses for his campaign and hopes to once again defeat his opponent whom he claims, “doesn’t seem to have a platform or a solution to anything, even on the economy – the one issue he beats the drum on.”
With early voting already underway, the latest FiveThirtyEight pollster forecast reveals Republicans have an 81 percent chance of taking over the House and a 48 percent chance of taking the Senate. Meaning Democrats will need to win two of the three closest Senate races—Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada—to maintain their majority, while also holding Arizona and New Hampshire. Early voting will take place on Oct. 29 through Nov. 6 while in-person voting will take place on Nov. 8.
