President:
The race for the White House is no doubt the most covered race in the 2024 general election.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, and former president Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, will face off in what is largely considered the closest, most consequential election in modern history.
In the presidential race, there are seven battleground states that will determine the outcome of the election. The states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are widely viewed as the states that are up for grabs by either candidate and will be crucial to pushing the winner over the finish line.
538 is a non-partisan elections database that developed a model for how likely each candidate is to win in each state given state partisanship, economic conditions and incumbency among others.
As of the time this article was written, Trump holds a slight lead in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania while Harris holds a slight lead in Michigan and Wisconsin. However, 538 notes all seven states are within their margin of error, meaning the candidate behind in each state is still close enough to win. Overall, 538’s election prediction model gives Trump a 53% chance of winning the election, compared to Harris’ 46%.
Both candidates are making their final pitches to voters ahead of the election. On Sunday, Oct. 27, Trump gave his “closing argument” to a full-capacity crowd of roughly 20,000 at Madison Square Garden in New York City. The speakers before Trump, however, received bipartisan backlash for jokes the Trump campaign said were made in “poor taste.” For example, one speaker noted the need to, “slaughter these other people,” while another called Puerto Rico, “a floating island of garbage.”
On Friday, Oct. 25, Harris held a rally with Beyonce in Texas, drawing roughly 30,000 attendees. On Tuesday, Oct. 29, Harris held a speech at the Ellipse in Washington, D.C., the infamous site of Trump’s rally on Jan. 6, 2021, before his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol. Harris is reportedly going to make a pitch to undecided voters and give a final argument on the threat Trump poses to American democracy.
Governors:
The races for governor across the country receive less coverage, but have critical implications for issues like abortion and education. Of the 11 gubernatorial races in the 2024 general election, only two are considered competitive.
In North Carolina, Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson was neck-in-neck with Democratic nominee Josh Stein. That was until CNN broke a story about Robinson’s comments on a former adult website where, among other things, he referred to himself as a “black Nazi.” In other speeches, he mocked school shooting survivors, disparaged the civil rights movement and made derogatory comments about women. Three recent polls released by Marist College and Emerson College show Stein ahead of Robinson with a lead ranging from 12 to 15 points, respectively.
Following the controversy and Stein’s climb in the polls, pollsters and pundits now call the race for governor in New Hampshire the most competitive in the country. Former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte is the Republican nominee, taking on Democrat Joyce Craig, the mayor of Manchester, New Hampshire’s largest city. Ayotte has faced criticism for past votes in favor of restricting abortion access while Craig has taken criticism for how she handled homelessness and crime in Manchester. A recent poll from the University of Massachusetts showed Ayotte with a one-point lead over Craig.
Republicans currently make up 27 governorships compared to the Democrats’ 23. However, having a majority of governorships does not come with any particular advantage, unlike the other races covered in this article.
Congress:
The race for control of Congress is not as covered as the presidential race, but is equally as close and either party could end up victorious.
In the U.S. Senate, Democrats are facing an uphill battle to retain control of the chamber. With an all-but-certain Republican gain in West Virginia, and Democrats forced to defend Montana and Ohio, two more conservative states, their hopes of keeping their slim majority seems dim. Currently, Democrats hold 51 seats compared to 49 seats for the Republicans. However, Sherrod Brown, the Democratic Senator for Ohio up for election, remains popular in the state, is polling well, and just received the endorsement of a former Republican governor.
In another turn of events, Dan Osborn, an Independent candidate running in Nebraska has surged into the national conversation as polls show an unexpectedly tight race between him and Republican Senator Deb Fischer. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll has Fischer at 48%, and Osborn at 46%. 538’s prediction model finds Republicans have an 89% chance of flipping the Senate, and an 11% chance Democrats keep control of the upper chamber.
In the U.S. House, Republicans are hoping to keep their historically small majority intact. Currently, Republicans hold 221 seats compared to 214 seats for the Democrats. 538’s forecast shows just 26 seats that either “lean” one way or are toss-up’s, meaning either candidate has a shot of winning. One of those lean districts is New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, where Democrat Sue Altman is running to unset Republican Representative Tom Kean Jr. 538’s prediction model gives Republicans a 52% chance of keeping control of the U.S. House, and gives Democrats a 48% chance of flipping control.
Since Republicans have controlled the chamber since January 2023, they’ve battled instability within their own party. Kevin McCarthy was ousted as Speaker of the House in a historic first after disagreements with a handful of far-right Republicans. The House voted to expel Republican Rep. George Santos of New York, failed to pass key policy items due to disagreements among Republican members, failed to bring evidence forward to bring evidence forward to support their claim President Joe Biden should be impeached, dealt with a handful of resignations and oversaw the least productive Congress in 100 years.
How to vote:
If you are looking to cast a vote in the 2024 general election, but aren’t sure if you are registered, where you’re registered or how you could vote, we’re here to help. By visiting either IWillVote.com or Vote.gov, you can check if you’re registered, register to vote if you are still eligible, and find out how you can make your voice heard on Election Day.
