The federal government is set to shut down by mid-March if Congress fails to find a compromise to fund the government. This would bring about the first government shutdown since Jan. 2019.
Bipartisan lawmakers in Washington, D.C. are working to try and find a solution to fund the federal government before it runs out of money on Mar. 14. The solution to fund the government would need to pass both the U.S. House and U.S. Senate, where Republicans hold historically slim margins, and get signed by President Trump.
A government shutdown would halt nearly all federal operations, including suspending pay for military servicemembers, closing national parks, and furlough millions of federal employees.
Republicans have 218 seats in the House while Democrats have 215. However, two of those Republican seats are vacant, meaning Republicans really have 216. This means House Speaker Mike Johnson will need to get his more moderate members and more conservative members on board, or support from Democrats if he loses some Republican votes.
Any funding measure would also need to make it through the Senate, where Republicans have 53 seats to Democrats’ 47. Republicans could afford to lose three of their own members, assuming all Democrats vote against a funding plan. In a 50-50 vote, the Vice President breaks the tie.
However, Democrats are not signalling opposition yet. In fact, they are negotiating with their Republican counterparts to find a bipartisan way forward. Democrats are also clear that any major cuts to government programs that they view as necessary could cost Republicans any Democratic support.
Another factor not typically at play in funding negotiations, is Trump’s claim that he isn’t bound by the Constitution’s power, granting Congress the right to appropriate funds.
Last month, Trump tried to freeze all federal funding for federal grants and programs, even though they were authorized by Congress. Two federal judges deemed this move unconstitutional, as the Constitution gives Congress the right to delegate funds and approve them for use.
In addition to that curveball, Congress must take into account the impact of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficieny (DOGE) and its efforts to cut federal spending by trillions of dollars.
No government shutdown occured under President Joe Biden’s presidency, but two occured during Trump’s first term. The most recent, stretching 35 days, from Dec 2018 to Jan. 2019, was the longest in U.S. history.
Historically, shutdowns reflect poorly on the party in power. With unanimous control in Washington, Republicans are looking to avoid a catastrophic political hit by avoiding a shutdown.
