Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill holds a lead over Republican candidate Jay Webber in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District (NJ-11) race, according to a recent poll released by the University’s Polling Institute on Tuesday, Oct. 9.
According to the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI), the district has a score of R+3, meaning it tends to vote Republican.
Currently, Sherrill has 50 percent of the vote in the race, and Webber has 43 percent.
President Donald Trump won the district by one point in the 2016 election, but according to the recent poll, only 43 percent of NJ-11 voters approve of his performance in office.
“Even though Republicans have the edge in party affiliation, many are not happy with the president or key GOP initiatives such as the tax reform plan,” Patrick Murray, Director of the University’s Polling Institute, says in the report.
The poll reported that the Republican tax reform plan passed in December is particularly unpopular in the district.
Despite its largely wealthier demographic, due to the adverse impact of the plan’s cap placed on the deduction for state and local income, property, and sales taxes in New Jersey, many voters in NJ-11 disapprove of the GOP.
34 percent of voters in the district “strongly disapprove” and 25 percent “strongly approve” of the tax reform.
“This is a tough year for Republicans to run in Democratic states or in swing districts, particularly because the president’s party does not do well in the first midterm election,” said Joseph Patten, Ph.D., an associate professor of political science.
“The democrats need about 23 seats to take over the House of Representatives, and by most estimates, they probably have about a 75 percent chance of taking back the House,” he continued.
Patten also explained that another factor that might be reflected by the polls in this district is the predicted “pink wave” in this midterm election cycle.
“A record number of women running for Congress,” said Patten. Currently, 57 percent of woman voters support Sherrill.
The Institute also found that 24 percent of voters in the district polled that healthcare policy is the most important issue in making their choice for their representative.
41 percent of participants in NJ-11 report that they trust Sherrill more to work to keep health care costs affordable, compared to 29 percent who said that they trust Webber to do the same.
